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ABC's "Catalyst" presents Peak oil

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Eclipse

Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 2:51 am Post subject: ABC's "Catalyst" presents Peak oil

Forum Freshman

Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 31

From their introduction....

Quote:

What would happen if the world were to start running out of oil? Conventional wisdom says weÃve got 30 years, but thereÃs a growing fear amongst petroleum experts itÃs happening much sooner than we thought Ã± that we are hitting the beginning of the end of oil now. So how soon will the oil run out, and can we stop our economy collapsing when it does? How prepared are we for the real oil crisis?

You can read the transcript or watch the show online here.
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/search/Catalyst

It's only 12 minutes â€” and is a fair introduction to the subject. What do people think? Have they seen anything on their national broadcasters to indicate that there could be an oil problem... the beginning of the end of the oil age? And if oil really is about to head permanently into decline (not "run out" but slow in production by about 2 to 5% per annum, permanently) what does it mean for the world economy?

If you enjoyed Catalyst, there's a 50 minute ABC "Four Corners" documentary that pretty much concludes with the statement that I've taken as my signature.

http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

ABC highlights that the whole non-OPEC world is about to go into peak oil, and the OPEC world is secretive and does not allow audits. We simply do not know how much oil they really have!

Maybe if you could watch both the ABC's Catalyst science show and the 4 Corners piece above, it would save a lot of time in the discussion that follows.

Cheers
_________________
I can imagine an industrial system that runs and repairs itself without oil. Yet because of the Export Land Model, I don't think we have enough time to build it. I hope I'm wrong.

Welcome to the End of the Oil Age!

jackson33

Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 10:07 am Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 1217

my grandfather answered this question in 1929, my dad in 1965 so I'll give it a try in 2006.

WE ARE NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL...........there is no way in 30 or 50 years this will happen and most feel, including increased usage, we have a 200 year supply and this will increase as new product is discovered, other energy supplies brought on line as substitute and the uses as energy
are improved. if you want to talk about refining capacity, in the US, you have a point. But even here, refineries are being built around the world and this problem will diminish. now we will pay more and 1 or 2 dollar gas in the US, is a thing of the past. Government (national and state) will continue to tax and increase taxes, in the name of conserving. the gas furnished in most nations cost about the same, about 1.75-2.00 per gallon and there taxes already very high dwarf what we pay in the US, ave 2.50.

the oil sand in the western US and Canada, have an estimated 100 years of supply alone, possibly more. also some feel crude is, not a billion year
in formation product, that in fact is in a continuous resupply mode and these have and will continue to resupply. also oil is a substance and this substance can be reproduced by man, pretty costly, but it can be done.

now if your still worried about getting you buggy to move in say 300 years; the science of nanotechnology is working on self producing forms of energy. in theory they will take a few cell of oil and by some means, get these cells to reproduce them selfs. actually they feel this could be from water, dirt or anything, but id rather you check out the subject and not make my view sound illogical.

as for media or the few that think the world itself is coming to an end, i suggest there interest is not science, not oil, not factual and concern for ratings of interest, only...

Ophiolite

Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:04 am Post subject:

Forum Radioactive Isotope

Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 4564
Location: Scotland

jackson33 wrote:

my grandfather answered this question in 1929, my dad in 1965 so I'll give it a try in 2006.

Strawman argument par excellence. The question is not whether we are running out of oil, but whether or not we are approaching a peak in production, after which the oil produced on a daily/montly/annual basis will decline.

jackson33 wrote:

........there is no way in 30 or 50 years this will happen and most feel, including increased usage, we have a 200 year supply and this will increase as new product is discovered, other energy supplies brought on line as substitute and the uses as energy
are improved.

So, lets see. You are positing more efficient use of energy; introduction of renewable and nuclear power; and then suggesting a two hundred year supply.
That sounds about right. And matches quite nicely what those who are warning about peak oil are saying. What you have failed to take into account is the economic pain that will be associated with the arrival of global peak oil. These pains will be massively increased if we continue to pretend that they are not coming.
Note that peak oil is somewhere between a couple of years and two or three decades away. Don't you think it might be prudent to prepare for this?

jackson33 wrote:

Government (national and state) will continue to tax and increase taxes, in the name of conserving. the gas furnished in most nations cost about the same, about 1.75-2.00 per gallon and there taxes already very high dwarf what we pay in the US, ave 2.50.

The high tax levels are designed to disourage hydrocarbon consumption because of global warming - I suspect you don't believe about it either.

jackson33 wrote:

the oil sand in the western US and Canada, have an estimated 100 years of supply alone, ..

You are, I think, referring to the tar sands. Would you like to share with us which company has developed an economic means of extracting this oil? I should certainly like to invest heavily in them!

jackson33 wrote:

also some feel crude is, not a billion year in formation product, that in fact is in a continuous resupply mode and these have and will continue to resupply.

Some in this context means Tommy Gold and the Soviets. Gold is dead, and so are the Soviets. This idea has a glimmering of plausibility. However, even if it were wholly valid, the time frame of replacement would be measured in scores of millenia, not decades.

jackson33 wrote:

also oil is a substance and this substance can be reproduced by man, pretty costly, but it can be done.

Another strawman. The concern about peak oil relates to in situ , producible, natual oil, not something made out of corn or recycled road kill. Such production is irrelevant to the argument that we are approaching the peak of oil production globally.

jackson33 wrote:

now if your still worried about getting you buggy to move in say 300 years; ..

Again, quite irrelevant, and when coupled with your patronising tone, almost offensive. The concern is the unecessary economic and social disruption that will be caused if we fail to acknowledge the onset of peak oil, and take appropriate steps to ease the transition to alternative energy sources.

jackson33 wrote:

as for media or the few that think the world itself is coming to an end, i suggest there interest is not science, not oil, not factual and concern for ratings of interest, only...

You really are the master of the strawman argument, aren't you jackson. The fact that some individuals and institutions and media outlets have become hysterical about peak oil, does not alter its reality, nor diminish its ultimate impact.

It is strange. In the early 1950s, when Hubbert King observed the gaussian curve of production associated with fields and oil provinces in the US, and predicted from this that the US oil production would peak in 1971, he was ridiculed and decried by many. In 1973 the US oil production peaked and has been declining ever since.

Now, half a century later, the current generation of ostriches is following the same well worn, deeply flawed, self destructive path of denial of reality.

jackson33

Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:32 am Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 1217

were to start??

we are not running out of oil, we are not having problems or come close to reaching a peak in availability or ability to extract. we will not have problems in refining oil and all that with the understanding the world usage will surge and there will be no peak in this factor for some time.
accepting all we are pumping from, sights being developed and sites we know of and ignore, oil sands or shale and geological surveys with untold potentials...we have a 300 year supply. PERIOD.

now lets go on; the cost will go up and so more can participate, other forms of energy will come on line as the cost of energy increases. this will help keep the cost down and since you prefer the supply to consumer time line will increase, above 300 years.

the subject, is a social and political toy to enhance a view of big business and not giving any credit to what these folks have done to generate the best overall living standards for all the people on the planet.

the reason the US production is down, is well understood and to argue political correctness would be out of place. also you need to understand the cost of production inside the US, will not compete with foreign oil and there cost. you will probably buy the cheapest item of two products of identical quality, as would i and i hope oil companies do. now lets try refineries...we have only one company (Valero) that can even refine thick oil (as in Saudi Arabia) and all the others require sweet oil, found in off shore sites, UK, Gulf of Mexico, US mainland Canada, Mexico and Alaska, which do supply most of our product. we also refine in other countries and this adds to our import-export discrepancies, but keeps our supply up. these refineries also tend to let small groups rant on and not worry about adding additional refineries. they have actually tripled production in existing refineries over the last 30 years. called cost efficiency. as to the figures used in the 50's- we have today, the same figure available as we did in the fifties. you need to understand the quantities involved in some new finds and the sands potential of 100 year supply. Sun oil of Canada is the major player, producing about 300k barrel per day at about 40 dollars per, expecting to triple in 07 and cost down a bit. they own about 60 % of the total Canadian field or trying to acquire and about ten other small companies have started up or got into over the past five years. in the US there are many interested in the process, but the combination of, national lands and environmentalist. the process, by the way is not experimental and is happening. if required the program could grow 20 fold in two years.
SON is the ticker symbol, but a little over valued.

i am not apposed to clean air, good drinking water or the good health of my neighbors. however i am also happy the horses are off the street. you need to read some reports of what NYC, was like in the teens, twenties as this problem was solved. people died off in their 40's and no one questioned anything. we have today, cleaner air, cleaner water and my neighbors health is better, than any time back to the early 1800's, if you compare population to pollution. i will concede in some metropolitan areas for a period this was not true.

jackson33

Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 12:07 pm Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 1217

had to go off line for a bit, w/o finishing oil sands. in the markets its referred to as oil sands and over half of Canada's oil is supplied from these sands.

investing is my thing, but would be careful advising investment, at this time and all i am listing are on the Toronto exchange. these stocks are subject to 15% tax, on all dividends paid and at this time not listed directly in the US. i invest in US firms that benefit from this, but none at this time. i do maintain a Canadian Coal Trust 15% dividend and traded on the NYSE....FDG

COS-UN.TO, IS SUCH A TRUST IN OIL SAND PRODUCT PAYS 1.20 PER YEAR .30 PER QUARTER CD. 31.20 THIS AM QUOTE. NOT TO BAD BUT STILL 28-30 PE.

OTHERS;
COSWF.PK
CLO.TO
EOS-UN.TO
OSM-UN.PK
OISDF.PK
SDOI.PK
WTO.TO
WTOIF.PK

billiards

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:43 pm Post subject:

Forum Junior

Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 232

Apparently now is a really good time to get into the oil industry. But after doing my own research, it seems peak oil is just around the corner. So are people lying to us poor, gullible earth science students? I mean, surely if production is going to peak, jobs will be lost so really it would be an unwise career move; my fear is that they (big oil companies) are planning to use us and lose us.

jackson33

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:58 pm Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 1217

billiards wrote:

big oil, is really the biggest bunch of people, invested in one industry. am
not sure of outside No America, but over 100 million individuals own part to a lot of big oil. directly or indirectly, its the biggest cash investment means for most of the 5k mutual funds and every single retirement fund of any US Company or government oriented retirement funds. if you would like, check institution ownership on any publicly owned company, big oil and related fields run 90-99%. even Haliburton, through many smaller companies including Pool Co. exist for the sole purpose of finding and recording new sources.

yes, we will reach a peak and to deny this would be illogical. this however is a long way off and you could do well investing or participating in the field. as an earth science major, you could do research work for a term paper, receive post graduate expenses at some really nice places and be paid a handsome wage and retirement package.

Eclipse

Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 3:56 pm Post subject:

Forum Freshman

Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 31

Quote:

we are not running out of oil, we are not having problems or come close to reaching a peak in availability or ability to extract. we will not have problems in refining oil and all that with the understanding the world usage will surge and there will be no peak in this factor for some time.
accepting all we are pumping from, sights being developed and sites we know of and ignore, oil sands or shale and geological surveys with untold potentials...we have a 300 year supply. PERIOD.

You are hilarious mate! Laughing

Do you work for the "Denial Machine" as well?

Here's the thing: the Australian Federal Senate inquiry into peak oil and mitigation concluded that cheap conventional oil will peak in the next 20 years â€” probably earlier than later in that 20 year window â€” and that we will then move into an era of depleting, vastly more expensive liquid fuels. This will have profound economic consequences. Basically you are wrong, wrong, wrong. Time for a little reality.

Chapter 3 of the report says...

Quote:

3.132 The concept that oil production will peak and decline, and there will be a post-oil age, is well accepted. The argument turns on when the peak will come, and how serious its economic effects will be.

3.133 'Early peak' commentators have criticised what they regard as overoptimistic official estimates of future oil supply with detailed and plausible arguments. The committee is not aware of any official agency publications which attempt to rebut peak oil arguments in similar detail.

3.134 Affordable oil is fundamental to modern economies. The risks involved are high if peak oil comes earlier than expected, or if economies cannot adapt quickly enough to the post-peak decline. The 2005 â€˜Hirsch reportâ€™ for the US Department of Energy argues that peak oil has the potential to cause dramatically higher oil prices and protracted economic hardship, and that this is a problem â€˜unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society.â€™ It argues that timely, aggressive mitigation initiatives will be needed:

Quote:

Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive that delayed mitigation.

[113]

_________________
I can imagine an industrial system that runs and repairs itself without oil. Yet because of the Export Land Model, I don't think we have enough time to build it. I hope I'm wrong.

Welcome to the End of the Oil Age!

Jellyologist

Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:44 pm Post subject:

Forum Senior

Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 330

Eclipse wrote:

Quote:

You are hilarious mate! Laughing

Quote:

Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive that delayed mitigation.

[113]

I'm surprised Australians have such faith in government. (Iraq?) Here in Canada I'd give our government as much credibility into these types of 'prediction' studies as the tea-leaf reader down at the county fair.

I live in Alberta, Canada: the hottest spot of fossil fuel exploration and production. I'm a geologist in paleontology but my wife, also a geologist, is involved in energy resevoir management. The opinion of geologists who do this for a living: 'We don't have a friggin clue'. If we knew we'd all be billionaires reaping the benefits of the futures market. We have geologist friends, technologists and so on over for a beer and to watch a movie, BBQ and so on. No one is part of any 'plot' of denial or control. The conversation usually is about hiking, hockey or cookie recipes. If I had any magic crystal ball predicting supplies I'd be god king of all geology and worlds beyond.

Eclipse

Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:50 pm Post subject:

Forum Freshman

Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 31

Not faith in government, but faith in counting!

Most geologists don't count the oil mate.
They are busy doing their jobs, not counting the barrels. They probably don't count how much we discover, how much we use, and how much we lose each day. Not many look at the bigger picture. They are doing their jobs.

Example:
I went to an oil presentation at Sydney's North Ryde CSIRO petroleum division. These guys and gals eat, breath, sleep petroleum. Better drill bits, new exploration techniques, new extraction techniques. They are very good at what they do.

Ask them, "How much oil is in the world and when will production peak and begin to decline?" and they don't have a clue. It's not their field.

Enter Bruce Robinson, a CSIRO scientist that works in a completely different field of science to do with the eyes. As a volunteer has been reading all he can about peak oil for the last decade. He's been counting the barrels. Would Petroleum scientists take him seriously? Why were geologists listening to him?

He stands up, does a powerpoint presentation, and before long the geologists there are squirming in their seats and groaning... "Why the hell hasn't anyone told us all this before?" So they were impressed. Not only that, if we are to believe ABC's Catalyst (above), over half the geologists in Australia now believe we are roughly at or very near to peak oil!

So unless you have any more real, technical information, I'll take your "doubt" and raise it by not only my Senate's certainty, but half the geologists in Australia, Dr Karl, Dr David Suzuki, a growing international consensus, and the fact that even a non-technical, maths-o-phobe like myself can count!

If you really want to engage this topic and start counting barrels, please answer the following few questions.

There are 2 halves of the oil world, OPEC and non-OPEC.

1. How is oil discovery going? You logically have to find oil before you can develop and produce it.
With the BILLIONS of dollars profit at stake,
* a highly competitive oil market,
* massive demand increases from China and India,
* INCREDIBLE new 3d visualization techniques
* AMAZING new deep sea drilling techniques of just the last decade
......how much more oil are they discovering than previous generations?

With all this extra money, competition, technology, and demand, they must be finding more oil than 2 generations ago... but are they finding as much as we'd assume? Is it the same discovery rate, indicating that maybe there will be a problem in a generation or two, or are we finding 3 or 4 times as much oil? Just how much oil are we finding with todays technology and market?

2. When does Exxon Mobile say that the non-Opec world is going to peak? (Exxon deny peak oil will hit for decades and decades, and so must be quite optimistic about the provinces they can "see" and have data to... surely?)

3. Who has access to OPEC data? Who can verify the reports they generate?

4. Will oil projects we know about in the next 5 years offset depletion from current fields?

Answers below.

*

*

*

1. Exxon Mobile believe the non-OPEC world is going to peak in the next 5 years.

2. No western nation is allowed to investigate and verify OPEC's claims, we are utterly blind. As my signature says, â€œ...to trust somebody who wonâ€™t allow any audits is extremely risky. I personally donâ€™t believe the numbers that are out there.â€ (ABC's 4 Corners)

3. Discovery has been dropping for 40 years, down to pitiful finds in the deep sea. We have drilled most of the planet and are just not finding enough! We have found all the low hanging fruit. This graph illustrates that the last time we found more oil than we consumed was over 25 years ago! For 25 years we have been increasingly relying on oil we discovered prior to the 1980's. For 40 years discovery has been declining. There are no more super-giant fields to be found!

4. No, according to UK petroleum reviews Chris Skrebowski.
Not only that, watch this wikipedia entry on the 54 out of 65 oil producing nations that have already peaked!

According to Chris Skrebowski, incoming projects will not be able to replace ACCUMULATED DEPLETION / Day by 2010 or before, let alone struggle to meet increased demand.

We are at peak oil, give or take a few years.

Do the math.
Or as they say in your part of the world, "Go figure".

Who would you rather trust, a bi-partisan government inquiry or an oil industry utterly dependent on the world staying addicted to their product for a few more years?
Hmmmm, Exxon deny Global Warming with their Denial Machine and "Carbon is life" adds.... hmmm, that's tough. Who to believe?

Wait a minute... we don't have to believe anyone. We can try counting the barrels and oil provinces ourselves!
_________________
I can imagine an industrial system that runs and repairs itself without oil. Yet because of the Export Land Model, I don't think we have enough time to build it. I hope I'm wrong.

Welcome to the End of the Oil Age!

leohopkins

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 2:50 am Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 1162
Location: Croydon, England

We can make synthetic diamonds, can we not make synthetic oil ?
_________________
The hand of time rested on the half-hour mark, and all along that old front line of the English there came a whistling and a crying. The men of the first wave climbed up the parapets, in tumult, darkness, and the presence of death, and having done with all pleasant things, advanced across No Man's Land to begin the Battle of the Somme. - Poet John Masefield.

www.leohopkins.com

Eclipse

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:05 am Post subject:

Forum Freshman

Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 31

Quote:

* 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
* A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
* Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.

Another problem with "creating" energy fuels is that a high ERoEI is so important. This is a main factor, but there are many others.

Click on my Home page at http://eclipsenow.org/ and then go to "Testing the alternatives" (down left hand column.) There I ask the main questions that alternatives to oil must meet.

S.E.R.V.I.C.E.

1. Sustainability
2. Energy Return on Energy Invested.
3. Rare materials
4. Volumes
5. Infrastructure â€” time to implement?
6. Constant supply of energy
7. Expense

I expand on these issues a little, but am not an expert. The real experts scare me... they are basically saying there is nothing ready to replace oil... nothing that can be scaled up in time to the volumes we need, at the price we are used to, with the high energy return and east of transport. (EG: Oil is pumped through pipes, ethanol must be put on a specially designed train as it corrodes the pipes, etc.)

If you have broadband the ABC's Catalyst above is a really good short watch, about 12 minutes... and then there's ABC 4 Corners on how we know we are near peak oil.
http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

On alternatives the Australian Senate INTERIM report ( have not read the whole final report yet) says....

Quote:

4.4 All of these possibilities come at a cost, economic or environmental, or have limitations. There is no universal panacea, no one perfect solution. This chapter gives a broad overview of the evidence received on each topic. The Committee has formed preliminary observations about each, but leaves in-depth analysis of each for the final report.

leohopkins

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:30 am Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 1162
Location: Croydon, England

Eclipse wrote:

We can, but we've left it too late to switch over to the other potential sources of liquid fuels easily. There will behttp://www.thescienceforum.com/posting.php?mode=editpost&p=59803 a profound lack of liquid fuels to meet market demand for many decades to come.

[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report]The Hirsch report states

* 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
* A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
* Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.

Well how bleedin' stupid are we then ?

We are living in the 21st century and we are behaving no better than the folk on Easter Island many years ago. Somebody MUST have realised that they were about to cut down the last bloody tree !!
_________________
The hand of time rested on the half-hour mark, and all along that old front line of the English there came a whistling and a crying. The men of the first wave climbed up the parapets, in tumult, darkness, and the presence of death, and having done with all pleasant things, advanced across No Man's Land to begin the Battle of the Somme. - Poet John Masefield.

www.leohopkins.com

Eclipse

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:46 am Post subject:

Forum Freshman

Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 31

Mate, that's my feeling the whole time.

I've been researching this bastard of a subject for 2.5 years.
I've led a team, www.sydneypeakoil.com into the NSW Senate to do a presentation for the minority parties.

I got permission from the "End of Suburbia" team to do a half hour cut of their great documentary on this subject, and we copied and distributed this 30 minute peak oil documentary to each and every member of the NSW Parliament and Senate.
(Thanks again EOS team!)

Please watch a 2 minute preview of their documentary here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM

After over 2 years research I can see how we got into this. There is no "oil cop" that has worldwide jurisdiction to monitor the reporting from an objective standpoint!

So... I'm quite excited by the solution, which is simply to use less oil! It will solve pollution, global warming, and national security issues once we are less dependent on the bloody stuff!

But... here's the catch. Instead of energy efficient cars, we should be thinking about energy efficient, walkable, public transport orientated (TODS.... Transit Orientated Districts) New Urbanism. While this will be a more beautiful and humane way to live, it will take roughly 70 years to build.

Sounds like you've taken the "Red Pill" (From the Matrix.) The Great Depression starts by around 2010-2015... airlines going bankrupt, some towns deserted, etc... fun fun fun. So if you want to fly somewhere, do it now. Check these other documentary previews... and welcome to the end of the party.

The irony is that the more I promote awareness and speak to politicians about this, the more likely a stock-market confidence collapse is going to kick in. But each year we fritter oil away on building more useless roads is another year wasted.

Please, please watch these previews... they will speak to you in a way I cannot in this forum. Buy them. Watch them, share them with your friends. It's time to get serious!

End of Suburbia â€” Canadian producer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM

Asleep in America â€” American Producer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeHs-RDK1b4

A Crude Awakening â€” European producer
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/index.html
_________________
I can imagine an industrial system that runs and repairs itself without oil. Yet because of the Export Land Model, I don't think we have enough time to build it. I hope I'm wrong.

Welcome to the End of the Oil Age!

leohopkins

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:03 am Post subject:

Forum Professor

Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 1162
Location: Croydon, England

Eclipse wrote:

Thanks, I will watch the presentation, but wont be able to do that until next week (when im getting broadband, finally)

As for clean air transportation, would it not be possible to create a nuclear fission or fusion fueled craft, where by the heat energy is used to flash-heat air in a chamber which is then shot out of the rear of the plane in the form of a jet-stream ?

As for safety concerns, well the black-box always seems to survive a crash, so simply house the nuclear fuel in a strong enough self-sealing container with an automatic locating device, so should the plane go down, authorities / local army units etc, etc can recover the nuclear fuel before it gets media coverage.
_________________
The hand of time rested on the half-hour mark, and all along that old front line of the English there came a whistling and a crying. The men of the first wave climbed up the parapets, in tumult, darkness, and the presence of death, and having done with all pleasant things, advanced across No Man's Land to begin the Battle of the Somme. - Poet John Masefield.

www.leohopkins.com

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